Poll: Collins and Jackson in tight U.S. Senate race
Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins and Democratic challenger Troy Jackson are locked in a tight race for U.S. Senate in Maine ahead of next week’s midterm election.
The Marist University poll, released Tuesday, showed Collins trailing Jackson by two percentage points, or 47%-49%, among the nearly 1,500 registered voters surveyed by the group.
That’s a slight increase from a Marist poll last month, but still within the 6.6 percentage point margin of error. About 3% of those polled were still undecided.
Similar to previous polls, Republicans on the ballot are being dragged down by President Donald Trump’s tanking approval ratings. The Marist poll found 58% of likely main voters disapprove of the president’s handling of his job. While at least 42% said Trump would not be a factor in their voting, 41% said they will cast their vote “against the president,” pollsters said.
At least 52% of likely Maine voters say they will support the Democrat on the ballot in their district while 47% support the Republican. The Democrats are up 17 points over the Republicans among likely-to-vote independents, pollsters found.
Among registered voters, the Democrats’ advantage opens up to 11 points, comparable to the 9-point lead held earlier this month, according to the poll.
The Maine Senate race is considered a must-win contest for the Democratic Party as it pushes to retake the U.S. Senate, where Republicans currently have a 53-45 majority. Both parties are channeling tens of millions of dollars into a crush of TV and digital advertising to sway undecided voters ahead of the election.
Jackson, a former Maine Senate President and Allagash logger, replaced disgraced Democratic candidate Graham Platner as the party’s nominee after he bowed out of the race amid sexual assault claims by former girlfriends.
Collins, a moderate, is the only Republican senator running for reelection this year in a Democratic-led state that Kamala Harris carried in the 2024 presidential election. If she wins a sixth term, Collins would become the longest serving U.S. senator in Maine history.
Election handicappers Cook Political Report and Inside Elections have both rated the Maine Senate race a “Toss Up” ahead of the Nov. 3 midterms. The RealClearPolitics polling average has Jackson leading Collins by 1.2 percentage points.
Meanwhile, in the race for Maine governor, Democrat Hannah Pingree and Republican Bobby Charles are tied among likely voters, with support for Independent Rick Bennett in single digits, according to the Marist poll. Among registered voters, Pingree has a 11-point advantage, pollsters said.
Nearly 200,000 Maine voters have already cast ballots through the mail and during the state’s nearly month-long early voting period which got underway on Oct. 5, according to the Secretary of State’s office.
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