Consumer confidence rebounds slightly from September
Consumer confidence rose slightly in October, shaped by consumers’ views of current business and job market conditions, as well as their expectations for the economy and their incomes over the next six months.
The Consumer Confidence Index, a widely followed economic indicator published monthly by the nonprofit think tank The Conference Board since 1977, rose 7.5 points to 91.7 in October, up from 84.2 in September.
The index returned to roughly its June level. Fergus McCormick, a senior economist with the organization, said the rebound coincided with falling retail gasoline prices from September to October.
National gasoline prices averaged $2.81 per gallon in January before surging to $4.48 in May following the launch of Operation Epic Fury and disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Prices subsequently declined before climbing again in late July and through September, according to federal data.
“Yet, despite the increase in October, consumer confidence remained on the long-term downward trend that’s persisted over the past few years,” McCormick noted in a statement. “Consumers planned less spending on services and durable goods over the next six months. This likely reflected higher price levels and persistent inflation, which eroded consumers’ purchasing power.”
Since 2007, consumer confidence has ranged from a low of 25.3 in February 2009, during the Great Recession, to a high of 137.9 in October 2018, before the COVID-19 pandemic. The index reached a post-pandemic high of approximately 129 in July 2021 but has generally declined since November 2024, when it stood at 112.8.
“Among write-in responses in October, consumers continued to express frustration with rising costs,” McCormick added.
Consumers expected prices to rise 5.8% over the next 12 months, a decline from September but still elevated. They also anticipated higher interest rates, although more consumers expected stock prices to rise than fall.
Consumers showed slightly less interest in purchasing homes and vehicles in October, based on a six-month moving average of their buying plans.
Expected purchases of durable goods, including smartphones, computers, laptops and tablets, declined by more than 1% in October.
Consumers also anticipated spending less on services, with the exception of movies, theatre, live entertainment and sporting events. More respondents planned domestic trips and fewer anticipated traveling abroad.
While consumers remained concerned about inflation and spending, their outlook for the economy over the next six months became less pessimistic in October.
The percentage expecting business conditions to worsen fell from 25.2% in September to 20.7%, while those anticipating improvement rose from 16.5% to 17.7%.
Consumers were more positive about current economic conditions than their expectations for the future, a pattern that has generally persisted for more than a decade.
Those describing business conditions as good rose from 18.8% in September to 21.4% in October, while the percentage saying jobs were plentiful increased from 24.3% to 26.7%.
The Conference Board surveys approximately 3,000 consumers nationwide each month. The online survey uses responses from a demographically weighted sample of U.S. households to measure consumers’ views of current economic conditions and their expectations for the next six months.
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